On the menu: A super Tuesday for race-watchers; GOP special election jitters cost Stefanik U.N. gig; Cuomo in command in NYC mayor race; what a Crockett; forget something?

The big events on the political calendar for next week are both on Tuesday: a gonzo state Supreme Court race in Wisconsin and a special election in Florida to replace Mike Waltz, the national security adviser to President Trump who finds himself at the center of the scandal over sharing state secrets on a text thread.

We have lots of goodies on those elections below and gave you a deep dive on the Wisconsin race last week. As for the texting brouhaha, suffice it to say that for now, the political consequences for Republicans will be bad and have been made worse by a response that seems aimed more at saving face with base voters and friendly media outlets than showing persuadable voters that the administration takes national security seriously.

But who knows? In the geyser of controversies spewing constantly out of this White House, something will probably soon enough replace “New phone, Houthis” as the hot topic. Not to say that the issues aren’t serious, only that the public attention span, even for a juicy scandal like this one, is short. Democrats won’t be running on the issue next year, even if it will inform an overall narrative about incompetence.

Let me suggest that the more significant date on the calendar for next week is not whatever hearings will be held on the text blunder or Tuesday’s elections, but rather on Wednesday when, after a series of false starts, the president says he will impose massive tariffs on imported goods.

It is, of course, possible that Trump will flinch again. His April 2 deadline for a 25 percent tariff on all imported automobiles as well as a slate of other levies his trade team has been working up on nations around the globe is entirely self-imposed. Trump may, as he has before, blunt the effects or waive some of them entirely.

How hard he swings the hammer may be influenced by the release Friday of the latest inflation figures. A jump in consumer prices may drive markets down and again cause Trump to mitigate the “disruptions” from his policies. But on the political balance sheet, it will still probably be marked down as a loss.

The catalog of bad things for politicians generally falls into one of two categories: Those that undermine a strength and those that reinforce a weakness. In politics, it is no good to live down to the expectations of your opponents, but it is even worse to not meet the expectations of your supporters.

Based on the most obvious interpretation of the results of the 2024 presidential election, Trump won a return ticket to the White House on the strength of two issues, the economy and immigration. Those were the subjects on which Trump most consistently thumped former Vice President Kamala Harris and which voters ranked as their top issues last year.

That’s certainly still true on immigration, where Trump continues to enjoy his strongest approval ratings of any issue. The most recent NBC News poll is typical: 55 percent approved of his handling of border security and immigration, a full 8 points better than his overall approval rating of 47 percent. Growing concerns about Trump’s methods may dampen the mood on immigration, but for now, it is the issue that not only unites Republicans, but also satisfies enough of the swing voters who came his way last year.

So what’s holding Trump’s overall number underwater at a negative 4.4 point rating in this week’s average? Voters haven’t been too thrilled with Trump on his handling of foreign policy, but outside of a major international crisis, the electorate is seldom much moved by foreign affairs. The problem, of course, is the economy.

The recession fears that were tanking markets have somewhat abated, but consumers (which is to say voters) remain anxious, driving the major metric of expected consumer spending down to its lowest level since the middle of the pandemic. Some of this may be the uncertainty among the millions of federal workers and contractors as government layoffs continue, but economists seem to be putting most of the blame on fears of a trade war and higher prices as tariffs are locked in.

That’s reflected in Trump’s approval ratings in a slew of recent polls.

Trump got a boffo (for him) 49 percent overall job approval rating in the latest Fox News poll, but just 43 percent approved of his handling........

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