Voters in Wisconsin and Florida are set to decide on several key statewide and congressional races that are shaping up to be the first critical bellwethers of the national mood since the 2024 election.

In the Badger State, voters will be weighing in on a high-stakes race between liberal candidate Susan Crawford and conservative candidate Brad Schimel for an open seat on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, which will determine its partisan tilt.

Voters also will weigh in on a state superintendent race between incumbent Jill Underly and challenger Brittany Kinser in addition to a ballot measure on voter ID.

In the Sunshine State, voters in the 1st and 6th congressional districts will choose candidates to replace former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.) and White House national security adviser Michael Waltz, respectively, in the House. The Waltz district race, in particular, has put Republicans on edge amid signs it could be closer than originally anticipated.

Here’s what to watch for:

Do Wisconsin voters deliver a blow to Musk?

The Wisconsin judicial race, which has already smashed fundraising records, will offer the first test of Trump ally Elon Musk’s political and financial influence.

Musk has poured significant resources to support Schimel in the open Wisconsin Supreme Court race.

At least $12.2 million in the race has come from his America PAC, according to the latest campaign filing available Monday morning. Building America’s Future, a group Musk has contributed to in the past, has also spent $4.7 million in the race to back........

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