Underestimating the enemy is a dangerous path for Trump to follow

Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin underestimated the Ukrainians in 2022. Adolf Hitler underestimated the Slavs in 1941. The latest addition to the list may be Donald Trump, who appears to have underestimated the Iranians in 2026. 

There are many more examples of leaders who start wars in the expectation that their opponents will lose quickly and then find themselves confronting unexpected outcomes ranging from stalemates to defeats. Such costly miscalculations have many reasons.

Intelligence may be flawed or disbelieved. Powerful interest groups and government factions may push agendas that leaders are compelled to endorse. Ideology may promote expansionist designs. Leaders may suffer from various obsessions. The people may demand that neighboring states be punished. 

And then there’s what the late Arkansas Sen. J. William Fulbright termed the “arrogance of power,” the belief that one’s powerful state or influential culture is superior precisely because they are powerful and influential. In turn, superiority translates into the right, or even the obligation, to impose one’s will on others. 

Hitler’s division of the world into Aryans and Untermenschen, or subhumans, is the classic example. The former were meant to rule, while the latter were meant to be ruled or exterminated. Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941 was supposed to result in a quick victory, the collapse of the Soviet state, the implementation of a “hunger plan” that would kill 30 million Slavs and the “final solution” of the “Jewish question.” Instead, the Soviet “subhumans” stopped the Wehrmacht at the gates of Moscow and then brought about its crushing defeat at Stalingrad, Kursk and finally Berlin. 

Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 also fits the pattern. The Ukrainians were expected to fold in a few days or weeks, precisely because Putin and his entourage were persuaded that they were inferior Russians breathlessly waiting to be elevated to the status of true Russians.

Instead, the inferior Russians asserted their identity as Ukrainians and stopped the Russian war machine by killing or wounding well over a million Russian soldiers, destroying thousands of tanks and forcing the Russian navy to retreat to the eastern shores of the Black Sea — all in exchange for territorial losses amounting to less than one percent of Ukraine. 

Trump’s attack on Iran appears at first glance to be an instance of the arrogance of power as well. He called Iranian leaders “deranged scumbags” whom it would be a “great honor” to kill, and termed Iran the “loser” of the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth has also made numerous comments denigrating the Iranian regime. 

But does Trump’s disregard extend to the Iranian people? The answer is unclear. For starters, Trump insults all of his opponents. There is nothing exceptional about his calling Iran’s leaders deranged scumbags. 

Moreover, his announcement of “major combat operations in Iran” focused on the regime, not the people. Trump devoted only one incongruously placed clause, almost as a sidebar, to the regime’s massacre of Iranians, noting that it “killed tens of thousands of its own citizens on the street as they protested,” and adding that the “terrorist regime can never have a nuclear weapon.” 

In all fairness, Trump was entitled to emphasize the Iranian nuclear threat to the United States (whether real or imagined is another matter) in his statement. He is, after all, the president of the United States, not Mother Theresa. Still, it’s hard to escape the feeling that the people of Iran are nowhere near to being his priority. 

What’s clear is that, in marked contrast to Hitler and Putin — who underestimated opponents’ leadership and people because they believed they were inherently inferior — Trump appears, to his credit, only to have underestimated the Iranian regime, which has proven to be far more resilient than he imagined. 

It’s too soon to proffer a final verdict, but if, in fact, Trump underestimated the Iranian regime, the Hitler and Putin cases suggest that a U.S. defeat is highly unlikely, but a slog is not. In other words, the war may end in a few weeks or it may not. And the longer the war takes, the larger the number of Iranian and American deaths, and the greater the monetary cost. 

No less worrisome is the near certainty that, as regular Iranians watch their country being systematically destroyed, they will turn against their putative liberator, the United States. President Trump will then be rightly accused of underestimating the depth of Iranian patriotism. 

Alexander J. Motyl is a professor of political science at Rutgers University-Newark.

Copyright 2026 Nexstar Media Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

More Opinions - National Security News

Cruz proposes splitting ICE from Homeland Security funding bill to end airport ...

Speaker Mike Johnson faces potential attendance problems as major bills loom

Republicans reject Democrats’ effort to pay TSA by suspending Senate rules

Homan: ICE officers will not assist with airport security operations amid TSA ...

Graham to Trump: Consider removing ‘US bases from countries who won’t let ...

US speeds up deployment of thousands more Marines, sailors to Middle East

The Justice Department takes action on the real Russian collusion conspiracy

Obama-era DHS chief says ‘we’ve got to stop with these funding fights’

Trump reacts to Robert Mueller death: ‘I’m glad’

Pet food recalled for salmonella, listeria and E. coli

Jordan subpoenas prosecutor over case involving protest near Stephen Miller's ...

These cities have the highest pay, lowest cost of living for 2026: study

SNL UK roasts Trump, Starmer relationship in first episode

Enabling this TSA feature could save you hours in airport security lines

Student misbehavior is still up — and teachers want parents to do more about ...

Judge rules Pentagon press policy under Hegseth unconstitutional 

GOP senator suggests 2-step move to break DHS funding deadlock 

© The Hill