Our age of what Mark Carney called global rupture is also often described as following the “law of the jungle”, in which the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must, with international law shattered and multilateral organisations hollowed out. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, and the US and Israel’s attacks on Iran and Lebanon seem to confirm this bleak outlook. On closer inspection, however, these wars offer a different, and far brighter, clue to the way forward.

Russia, once seen as a formidable military power, was expected to overwhelm Ukraine, a much smaller and weaker country backed by a divided, fearful and hesitant west. Even after the war settled into a protracted stalemate, the prevailing belief was that Ukraine was doomed to lose. But the narrative has shifted.

Yes, Russia has trampled all over international law and remains the stronger party both militarily and demographically. Yes, Donald Trump’s US has betrayed Ukraine, and while European support has been strong and consistent, it remains insufficient. Yet Ukraine stands tall.

In the Middle East, the US and Israel attacked Iran twice, again in blatant violation of international law. European leaders, initially shamefully evasive on the question of legality, eventually acknowledged as much. There was never any doubt about who held the power: the US, the world’s major military superpower, alongside Israel, aspiring to assert itself as the regional hegemon, struck Iran, a country weakened by internal protest and an unprecedented wave of repression. Benjamin Netanyahu convinced Trump that one final push would topple the Islamic Republic like a house of cards.

Four months later, a memorandum of........

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