That chill in the air you are feeling is not the weather, it is the Republicans freaking out about this 2026 midterm elections. Midterms are always referendums on the incumbent, though the party in power usually would rather they weren’t.

This midterm feels less like a referendum on Trumpism than a dirge. It’s easy to see how Republicans got here, lulled into thinking that their guy Donald Trump, could once again defy political gravity. Trump certainly thought he could.

When it became clear he couldn’t, Trump tried to defy political gravity by federalizing elections and messing with mail-in voting (many would call this cheating) or redrawing the map to gain seats in states like Texas (many would also call this cheating).

Even Trump at his peak couldn’t defy diesel at $6.50 a gallon, and Trump is now longer the deft faux populist he was in his first term. Bored, his eyelids often droop and his mouth often becomes slack during his pm meetings.

In a political environment like this where Democrats have about a nine-point advantage, even some of the redder parts of the country seem very much in play. Even some of those redrawn seats in Texas may stay in Democratic hands.

Trump’s mail-in voting plan has been foiled by six and half supreme court justices, the political reality is beginning to sink in and that political reality is looking like a doozy. Turns out doing the exact opposite of what you campaigned on is not that popular. Here are some of stories I have noticed emerging this midterm election cycle.

Hyper-local inflation

One of the things I........

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