Donald Trump and the Republicans ought to be wary of a possible blue wave in next year’s midterms. On Tuesday, voters in Florida and Wisconsin signaled dissatisfaction with Elon Musk, the GOP and the president. On the surface, the results spelled political equipoise. No seats changed hands.

A closer look, however, reveals possible headaches for Donald Trump and his party.

In a special election in Florida’s sixth congressional district to fill the vacancy left by Mike Waltz, Trump’s beleaguered national security adviser, voters elected Randy Fine, a Republican state senator, as Waltz’s replacement. Last November, Trump won the district by a whopping 30 points. By contrast, Fine’s margin was about 14 points.

Beyond that, voter turnout was markedly lower than a half-year ago. Talk about underperforming.

Then again, the closeness of the contest came as no surprise to the White House. A poll........

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