Keep calm and carry on. Let’s not lose our heads, because the stupidest thing we can do right now is to panic. Thus speak those Labour people who claim to be relaxed about polling that puts Reform ahead of their party, with the Tories languishing in third place. There’s some sense in this warning not to do the headless chicken. Britain’s next general election does not have to take place until mid-2029. No poll taken today is a reliable predictor of what kind of government people will want many years ahead. Voters indicating that they are backing Reform are telling us that they don’t like either Labour or the Tories. That is not the same as saying that they all want Nigel Farage to be the next prime minister.

It is also true that the outlook is less immediately frightening for Sir Keir Starmer than it is for Kemi Badenoch. “Reform is not great for Labour, but it is an existential threat to the Tories,” remarks one Labour strategist, noting that last week’s YouGov poll reported that one in five of Tory voters in 2024 said they would now back Reform. It is a spine-chiller for the Conservatives to see high-value donors defecting to Reform. Another cause for Tory alarm is underlined by the Opinium poll we publish today: their vote share is sinking to depths even inkier than they experienced at last summer’s election. “Every time we think things can’t get any worse, and then they get worse,” groans one Conservative MP. To have any hope of surviving as leader of her regicidal party, Mrs Badenoch has to convince her colleagues that she can prevail in the fight with Reform to be the right’s main competition to Labour. She is manifestly losing that battle at the moment. Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, has taken to crowing: “We have the momentum and the Tories are now splitting our vote.”

That momentum also disturbs the growing number of Labour people who are not staying calm and don’t think they can afford to carry on ignoring Reform. One Labour veteran, usually a phlegmatic........

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