The debate over new provinces has resurfaced amid a deepening crisis of credibility in Pakistan’s political system—and it is not unfolding in a political vacuum. Fifteen years after the 18th Amendment transferred major responsibilities for education, health and other public services to the provinces, and the 7th NFC Award substantially increased their share of federal revenues, the state still performs poorly across many basic functions. Against this record, Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi’s call for new provinces appears to be an intervention in the country’s balance of power: one that could weaken the territorial strongholds of the PML-N and PPP, revive demands for new political units and shift public anger away from the establishment’s own policy failures towards provincial governments and elected politicians. 

That political factors do not by themselves invalidate the case for smaller provinces; in some circumstances, they may improve representation and administration. But it does demand greater scrutiny of the proposed cure. Before Pakistan redraws its constitutional map, the more fundamental question is what the existing provinces have delivered with the powers and resources they already possess. Their record since devolution provides a more meaningful test of the country’s political system than political rhetoric, inflated development budgets or the promise of administrative redesign.

The test of devolution should be outcomes, not political or constitutional rhetoric. Fifteen years on, the record is mixed. It is tempting to blame the establishment for the failures of politicians and the political process, but that cannot absolve the two parties that have dominated provincial government for most of this period: the PML-N in Punjab and the PPP in Sindh. As provincial budgets soared, political elites accumulated fortunes while basic public services remained far below what Pakistan's resources should have delivered. One can reasonably argue that Punjab, under successive PML-N governments, has performed better than Sindh under the PPP, particularly on literacy, enrolment and immunisation. But even Punjab's record, viewed on its own rather than against Sindh, leaves much to be desired: in 2024–25, 21% of children aged 5–16 were still out of school, while literacy was only 68%. The gains elsewhere have been even weaker and, in some cases, barely perceptible. There has been genuine progress most notably in immunisation and, in some provinces, literacy and school participation—but not on a scale that can credibly be described as a transformation in provincial state capacity.

The record since devolution provides a more meaningful test of the country's political system than political rhetoric, inflated development budgets or the promise of administrative redesign.

The record since devolution provides a more meaningful test of the country's political system than political rhetoric, inflated development budgets or the promise of administrative redesign.

The evidence is encouraging, but not impressive, in education. Between 2011–12 and 2024–25, literacy among people aged 10 and above rose from 60% to 68% in Punjab, from 52% to 58% in KP and from 46% to 49% in Balochistan;........

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