Last week, amid widespread protests in Iran, US President Donald Trump openly urged Iranian protesters to continue their campaign and take over government institutions. He then added a loaded line: "Help is on the way." The message instantly triggered speculation of a US military strike on Iran. But that "help" never arrived.

As days passed, US media reported that President Trump had put any plan to attack Iran on hold. Subsequent reporting suggested that Trump reconsidered after a phone call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who advised against launching military strikes. This was surprising. Israel has long been seen as eager to seize any opportunity to corner Iran, militarily or politically.

The advice, however, was driven by two hard realities. First, Israeli intelligence assessments concluded that while the Iranian regime appeared under pressure, it was not weak enough to be overthrown through external military action and internal unrest. Protests alone, even if widespread, were unlikely to........

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