In a recent op-ed appearing in this newspaper, I likened Pakistan's economy to Schrödinger's cat —simultaneously alive and dead, depending on the observer's perspective. The analogy, borrowed from quantum theory, captured the ambiguity of a system suspended between two outcomes. Today, that image meets its financial twin: the "dead cat bounce" — a term describing a brief, illusory recovery following a dramatic fall, often misread as the start of a turnaround.

And so, the question arises again: Is Pakistan's economy genuinely rebounding? Or are we mistaking noise for signal?

Following an intense crisis from 2022 and 2024, with historic inflation, record-low reserves and default fears, Pakistan seems to be bouncing back. Headline inflation has plummeted to 0.7% — a 30-year low — foreign exchange reserves have climbed to $15.5 billion, and the IMF has approved a $7 billion bailout, with $1 billion already disbursed.

The World Bank has pledged a $20 billion, decade-long financing package. Investor sentiment has warmed considerably, with Pakistan's global default risk declining by over 90%. Fitch Ratings even upgraded Pakistan's credit rating to B-, the first positive change in years.

These numbers, at first glance, are a sigh of relief.........

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