Just a year ago, agriculture was hailed as the "saviour" of Pakistan's economy. The sector recorded an impressive growth rate of 6.25% - the best in two decades — and well above that of other sectors. Rural incomes rose, exports expanded and confidence was high. The Finance Minister proudly celebrated the resilience of farmers and the strength of the agriculture sector.

In just one year, the situation has dramatically changed. Agricultural growth has collapsed and in the second quarter of fiscal year 2024-25, output increased by only 1.1%. The main factor was a significant fall in the output of Pakistan's major crops. Cotton production, crucial for the textiles industry which is the country's largest export earner, dropped by over 30%.

Maize output shrank by 15%, while rice production slipped as well. The risk of food insecurity also looms large as the outlook for wheat, the country's most important food crop, is dire. Forecasts suggest a production shortfall of about 11%, driven by less area under cultivation, dry weather conditions and policy uncertainty.

Lower agriculture growth implies that farm incomes are under pressure but there are also knock-on effects. Reduced agricultural output hurts the entire economy: fewer exports mean less foreign exchange; smaller wheat harvests mean higher food prices; and rural hardship translates into more pressure on social services and increased rural to urban migration.

What caused this sudden reversal, and more importantly, what must we do to get agriculture back on track?

A major factor for the poor performance was........

© The Express Tribune