Hanson becoming PM is technically possible. But history is not on her side
There has been a lot of speculation lately, not least from Pauline Hanson, about the possibility of the One Nation leader riding her surging polling figures into The Lodge at the next election.
So what are the rules around who can be prime minister? What would need to happen first? Is it likely Hanson will ever hold the position, or is this just hype?
While the prime minister has historically come from the House of Representatives and not the Senate, where Hanson is, this is not actually stipulated in the constitution.
This means many of our rules are mostly conventions inherited from the Westminster traditions of the United Kingdom, rather than legal requirements.
By these conventions, the prime minister has historically been the leader of the party or parties that can maintain the confidence of the House of Representatives. To be eligible, section 64 of the constitution requires only that all government ministers have a seat either in the Senate or House within three months of being appointed to the role.
So, given Hanson holds a seat in the Senate, she's eligible to be a government minister and will remain so unless she loses her seat and can't get it back.
By convention, prime ministers have traditionally been drawn from the House of Representatives. This convention is so strong that when Senator John Gorton was voted by the Liberals to become their leader in 1968, he resigned and moved to the lower house almost immediately.
Having the prime minister in the lower house means they are directly accountable to the people of an individual electorate, can face more scrutiny during question time, and helps to show they're better in control of their own ministers and backbenchers. It also means they share in the three-year electoral cycle with the majority of MPs, rather than six-year terms of senators.
What would need to happen?
First, One Nation would need to get a large enough share of seats in the lower house to ensure Hanson could survive a vote of no confidence. This would need to be either a majority (76 of the 150 seats up for grabs) or a........
