ASEAN Beat | Society | Southeast Asia

Singapore to Ramp Up Immigration as Birth Rate Hits New Low

Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said that without concerted action, the country’s citizen population will start to shrink by the early 2040s.

Singapore’s fertility rate has fallen to a new record low, according to preliminary government figures, putting pressure on the government to further increase immigration to offset the decline.

Addressing Parliament on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said that Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 0.87 in 2025, down from 1.24 a decade ago. Gan said that even taking immigration into account, the growth of Singapore’s citizen population has slowed over the past 10 years, falling from an average of 0.9 percent per year between 2015 and 2020, to 0.8 percent per year during 2020-2025.

“If no new measures are taken, our citizen population will start to shrink by the early part of the 2040s,” Gan said, as per Channel News Asia.

He warned that low birth rates and an ageing population will “profoundly reshape” Singapore’s society and economy in the years to come. If left unaddressed, it would soon become “practically impossible to reverse the trend, because we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children.” Gan said that Singapore saw about 27,500 resident births in 2025, the lowest number in its recorded history. At this rate, he said that every 100 residents will produce just 44 children and 19 grandchildren.

Singapore’s stubbornly low fertility rate is currently one of the main long-term challenges facing the People’s Action Party (PAP) government. This is compounded by the rapid greying of the population. The proportion of citizens aged 65 and above hit 20.7 percent in 2025, up from 13.1 percent a decade prior, while the number of those aged 80 or over rose from 2.4 percent to 4 percent.

To address this, the government has attempted a range of campaigns and initiatives to encourage Singaporeans to have more children. It has also leaned heavily on immigration, which has pushed the population up from 4 million in 2000 to around 6.1 million today.

Sure enough, Gan told Parliament that the government plans to take in between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens every year over the next five years to offset low birthrates and rapid ageing. He stressed the need for a “carefully managed immigration flow to augment our low birth rate,” while maintaining a stable citizen core and ensuring that new arrivals do not overwhelm public infrastructure such as housing and transport.

Even if successful, however, the reliance on immigration to offset low birthrates may create additional problems. A particular concern is what will happen to national cohesion as a larger and larger proportion of Singaporean citizens are made up of naturalized foreigners. Due to the need to maintain Singapore’s current ethnic proportions – roughly 75 percent ethnic Chinese, 15 percent Malays, and 7 percent Indians, with the remainder made up of other groups – a large proportion of migrants have come from the People’s Republic of China, and the new arrivals often have a very different identity from Singapore-born Chinese. The arrival of “new Chinese” migrants has also prompted official fears that Singapore is becoming more susceptible to Chinese influence operations.

As in many countries, the exact causes of Singapore’s low fertility rate are complex and multifaceted. According to the National Population and Talent Division, “the trend of low fertility reflects a generational shift where younger Singaporeans value and prioritize other life goals ahead of marriage and parenthood.” The decision of whether to marry or have children is “influenced by a wide range of factors, including the costs of raising children, ability to manage work and family commitments and expectations around what it means to be a good parent.”

It is possible that Singapore is now experiencing the delayed impact of decades of sustained economic success, and the industrious, competitive ethos that it has encouraged. How the government manages this challenge could ultimately determine whether the current generation of PAP leadership is judged competent stewards of Lee Kuan Yew’s legacy.

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Singapore’s fertility rate has fallen to a new record low, according to preliminary government figures, putting pressure on the government to further increase immigration to offset the decline.

Addressing Parliament on Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said that Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) fell to 0.87 in 2025, down from 1.24 a decade ago. Gan said that even taking immigration into account, the growth of Singapore’s citizen population has slowed over the past 10 years, falling from an average of 0.9 percent per year between 2015 and 2020, to 0.8 percent per year during 2020-2025.

“If no new measures are taken, our citizen population will start to shrink by the early part of the 2040s,” Gan said, as per Channel News Asia.

He warned that low birth rates and an ageing population will “profoundly reshape” Singapore’s society and economy in the years to come. If left unaddressed, it would soon become “practically impossible to reverse the trend, because we will have fewer and fewer women who can bear children.” Gan said that Singapore saw about 27,500 resident births in 2025, the lowest number in its recorded history. At this rate, he said that every 100 residents will produce just 44 children and 19 grandchildren.

Singapore’s stubbornly low fertility rate is currently one of the main long-term challenges facing the People’s Action Party (PAP) government. This is compounded by the rapid greying of the population. The proportion of citizens aged 65 and above hit 20.7 percent in 2025, up from 13.1 percent a decade prior, while the number of those aged 80 or over rose from 2.4 percent to 4 percent.

To address this, the government has attempted a range of campaigns and initiatives to encourage Singaporeans to have more children. It has also leaned heavily on immigration, which has pushed the population up from 4 million in 2000 to around 6.1 million today.

Sure enough, Gan told Parliament that the government plans to take in between 25,000 and 30,000 new citizens every year over the next five years to offset low birthrates and rapid ageing. He stressed the need for a “carefully managed immigration flow to augment our low birth rate,” while maintaining a stable citizen core and ensuring that new arrivals do not overwhelm public infrastructure such as housing and transport.

Even if successful, however, the reliance on immigration to offset low birthrates may create additional problems. A particular concern is what will happen to national cohesion as a larger and larger proportion of Singaporean citizens are made up of naturalized foreigners. Due to the need to maintain Singapore’s current ethnic proportions – roughly 75 percent ethnic Chinese, 15 percent Malays, and 7 percent Indians, with the remainder made up of other groups – a large proportion of migrants have come from the People’s Republic of China, and the new arrivals often have a very different identity from Singapore-born Chinese. The arrival of “new Chinese” migrants has also prompted official fears that Singapore is becoming more susceptible to Chinese influence operations.

As in many countries, the exact causes of Singapore’s low fertility rate are complex and multifaceted. According to the National Population and Talent Division, “the trend of low fertility reflects a generational shift where younger Singaporeans value and prioritize other life goals ahead of marriage and parenthood.” The decision of whether to marry or have children is “influenced by a wide range of factors, including the costs of raising children, ability to manage work and family commitments and expectations around what it means to be a good parent.”

It is possible that Singapore is now experiencing the delayed impact of decades of sustained economic success, and the industrious, competitive ethos that it has encouraged. How the government manages this challenge could ultimately determine whether the current generation of PAP leadership is judged competent stewards of Lee Kuan Yew’s legacy.

Sebastian Strangio is Southeast Asia editor at The Diplomat. 

Singapore demographics

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