The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

Why a Bangladesh-India Deal Over the Teesta’s Waters is Imperative

China can help Dhaka dredge the riverbed, but it cannot fill the Teesta river if upstream flows into Bangladesh remain low.

The Teesta Barrage, built on the Teesta River in northern Bangladesh.

During Bangladeshi Prime Minister Tarique Rahman’s official visit to China in June, the two countries agreed to deepen cooperation on the long-discussed Teesta River Comprehensive Management and Restoration Project. China said it would support the project within its capacity and help expedite its feasibility study, raising fresh hopes for progress on one of Bangladesh’s most politically sensitive infrastructure initiatives.

China may be able to help Bangladesh reshape the banks of the Teesta. It can finance dredging, construct embankments and help create reservoirs to store monsoon water.

But can it guarantee that enough water will cross the border into Bangladesh during the dry season?

That depends largely on upstream water availability, releases, and cooperation from India.

The Teesta is central to agriculture and livelihoods across Bangladesh’s northern districts, but it behaves like two different rivers. During the dry season, its channels shrink and irrigation becomes difficult. During the monsoon, sudden surges cause floods, erosion and displacement.

The proposed Chinese-backed project is intended to address both problems.

An earlier proposal from state-owned PowerChina, developed from studies beginning in 2019 and subsequently revised, envisaged dredging a 102-km stretch of the river, repairing nearly 80 km of existing embankments and constructing more than 124 km of new ones.

It also proposed new groynes, roads, agricultural and industrial zones, settlements and the reclamation of more than 170 sq km of land during the first phase. However, Bangladesh and China have since agreed to conduct a new joint feasibility study, meaning the project’s final design, cost and scope could still change.

These measures could bring clear benefits. Stronger embankments may reduce erosion, while dredging and reservoirs could improve monsoon-water management and preserve some water for later use. Roads and reclaimed land could also support economic activity in northern Bangladesh.

Sreeradha Datta of the New Delhi-based Jindal School of International Affairs told The Diplomat that the proposed project could help Bangladesh control floods and store monsoon water for agriculture. But its impact would ultimately depend on the amount of water available in the river during the dry season.

“If the river does not have an adequate flow, no project can artificially increase it,” Datta said. Bangladesh needs water in the Teesta during the lean season, and that “requires discussions between India and Bangladesh.”

Her warning highlights the project’s main limitation: It cannot produce more water.

The Teesta begins in the Indian state of Sikkim, flows through West Bengal and enters Bangladesh’s Nilphamari district before joining the Brahmaputra river. Bangladesh therefore receives what remains after upstream use, diversion, and regulation. The Gajoldoba Barrage in West Bengal plays a central role in controlling the river’s flow before it reaches the border.

The consequences are most visible between December and March. According to the Bangladesh Water Development Board, the Teesta’s natural dry season flow should be about 5,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs). Recent measurements have fallen to around 400 cusecs. The shortage has disrupted the production of agricultural products worth more than 10 billion taka (about $81 million) each year.

Bangladesh can dredge the riverbed, but it cannot fill it if upstream flows remain this low. It can construct canals, but those canals will have little value without a predictable supply of water. It can reclaim land, but agriculture on that land will still depend on water.

This is why the Teesta project and a water-sharing agreement with India should not be treated as alternatives. They address separate but interconnected parts of the same crisis. The Chinese-backed project focuses on managing the river inside Bangladesh. An agreement with India would help determine how much water Bangladesh receives and when it receives it.

Sheikh Rokon, an activist and secretary general of Riverine People, an NGO that works to protect rivers, told The Diplomat that the master plan was necessary for managing the Teesta within Bangladesh. But its effectiveness, he argued, would depend on reliable information about upstream flows and water availability.

“We need hydrological data from India during both the dry season and the monsoon,” Rokon said. Even if Bangladesh stores or redistributes the water available within its territory, it cannot manage the river sustainably without knowing how much water is coming from upstream, he said.

Rokon also argued that a formal agreement was essential to........

© The Diplomat