Crossroads Asia | Economy | Central Asia

Uzbekistan’s Afghanistan Push Accelerates

With growing trade volumes, infrastructure initiatives, and initial geological explorations in Afghanistan, Uzbekistan is testing whether economic interdependence and proximity can function as a substitute for political recognition. 

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev received Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Industry and Trade Nuriddin Azizi in June 2025.

In late February 2026, Uzbek officials quietly confirmed that economic integration with Afghanistan is accelerating at a pace that outstrips earlier projections. Reportedly, trade turnover between the two countries in 2025 reached $1.5 billion ($1.68 billion in other sources) reflecting a 53 percent increase compared to the previous year and a 2.5 fold rise from $653 million reported in 2021. 

After a video conference with Afghanistan’s Acting Minister of Industry and Trade Nuriddin Azizi on February 26, Uzbekistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khodjaev said that the two sides intend to increase this figure up to $5 billion, with a business forum in Kabul and a roadmap outlining priority areas scheduled after Ramadan – the Muslim holy month lasting till late March this year. Khodjayev also mentioned that the parties are working to accelerate the entry into force of the Preferential Trade Agreement that they signed in June 2025

A day later, presidential spokesperson Sherzod Asadov also highlighted the “great results” the Termez International Trade Center (or the Airitom Free Zone) has achieved. The center, as he noted, welcomed more than 800,000 Afghan citizens last year with exports reaching $320 million. The Airitom Free Zone on the Afghan border was launched in 2023 to allow cross-border trade. Afghan citizens are able to enter the zone visa-free for up to 15 days. The center is set to be expanded to 1,000 hectares with an export volume expected to reach $600 million this year and $1 billion next year. According to Asadov, a special legal regime will also be established with a dedicated prosecutor’s office and the internal affairs department at Airitom. The trade in goods and services will be counted as exports with value added tax applied at a zero rate. 

All of this is unfolding without formal recognition by Tashkent of the Taliban-led government in Kabul.

For Tashkent, the logic is straightforward: an economic collapse in Afghanistan could translate into instability along the country’s southern border. So Uzbekistan has opted to invest in maintaining economic stability in Afghanistan as a security strategy, an approach that also has opened a new market for Uzbek businesses. As of 2025, Afghanistan has become the fourth largest export destination country for Uzbek goods after Russia, China, and Kazakhstan, with exports totaling $1.5 billion.

Afghanistan, for example, has quickly become Uzbekistan’s top wheat export destination. The volume of wheat exported reached almost 1.6 million tons. As a comparison point, the other neighboring countries bought far less: Tajikistan, 607 tons; Kyrgyzstan, 356 tons; and the rest even less. Last year, Afghan citizens made the largest share of visitors to Uzbekistan on business purposes with over 400,000 arrivals recorded.........

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