ASEAN Beat | Politics | Southeast Asia

What’s Next After the Senate Coup in the Philippines?

Last week’s events, including the second impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, could further polarize the country’s politics ahead of the 2028 presidential election.

It has been a historic but chaotic week for Philippine politics.

On May 11, Vice President Sara Duterte was impeached for the second time by members of the House of Representatives.

The same day, Duterte allies regained the leadership in the Senate, which means they will oversee the impeachment trial of the vice president.

A warrant of arrest was also issued by the International Criminal Court for Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa, a former police chief who implemented the bloody campaign against illegal drugs during the term of President Rodrigo Duterte, Sara Duterte’s father.

Instead of surrendering, Bato sought refuge in the Senate, which gave him protective custody. A few days later, Bato sneaked out of the Senate to avoid arrest as he dismissed the ICC case as an act of foreign interference.

What are the implications of these actions and developments on Philippine politics?

First, the new Senate majority clearly demonstrated that they have the numbers to acquit Sara Duterte. At least 16 votes are needed to convict the vice president, which would remove her from office and prevent her from holding an elected position for life. Duterte can simply rely on the loyalty of her faction in the Senate to survive the impeachment trial and come out stronger ahead of her planned run in the 2028 presidential election.

The pro-Duterte senators can also maneuver to delay and prolong the impeachment. For example, they can invoke legal provisions to either block the presentation of evidence or restrict the release of records that can be shared with the public. They can echo the argument of the Duterte camp that publishing the financial data of the vice president and her husband violates privacy and bank secrecy laws.

But even if she has the Senate majority on her side, Duterte’s political clout was undermined after she failed to persuade House members to vote down her impeachment. Despite the threat issued by a pro-Duterte party, the final tally of the impeachment was greater than last year’s impeachment vote. Either the House majority doubled down on consolidating its ranks, or Duterte’s political influence has been eroded. Duterte may be rating high in public opinion surveys, but she needs the political machinery of local........

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