Australian Security Intelligence Organization (ASIO) chief Mike Burgess has warned that over the next five years Australia’s security environment will become more dynamic, diverse, and degraded, with “more security surprises” in the second half of the decade than in the first.

In his Annual Threat Assessment delivered on February 19, Burgess predicted more communal violence attacks and foreshadowed Australia’s defense system would face greater threats from espionage, foreign interference, and potentially sabotage.

The situation had prompted him to take the unusual step of declassifying details of the security outlook covering the coming five years.

With an “unprecedented number of challenges, and an unprecedented cumulative level of potential harm, Australia has never faced so many different threats at scale at once,” he said. Burgess continued:

Many of the foundations that have underpinned Australia’s security, prosperity and democracy are being tested: social cohesion is eroding, trust in institutions is declining, intolerance is growing, even truth itself is being undermined by conspiracy, mis-and disinformation.

Similar trends are playing out across the Western world.

Australia is facing multifaceted, merging, intersecting, concurrent, and cascading threats. Major geopolitical, economic, social and security challenges of the 1930s, ‘70s and ‘90s have converged. As one of my analysts put it with an uncharacteristic nod to popular culture: everything, everywhere all at once.

Burgess said ASIO was empowered to investigate seven heads of security: espionage, foreign interference, politically motivated violence (which includes terrorism), the promotion of communal violence, sabotage, attacks on Australia’s defense system, and serious threats to border integrity.

“Three of our heads of security are already flashing red: espionage, foreign interference, and politically motivated violence,” Burgess said.

ASIO expected in the next five years the promotion of communal violence, sabotage, and attacks on the defense system could join them.

Burgess did not envisage any immediate........

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