How China Is Normalizing Its Presence in the Waters East of Taiwan

Accidents, the ‘normalization’ of law enforcement and integration into a sphere of influence

Following the Japan-Philippines Summit Meeting on May 28, 2026, Japan and the Philippines are to hold negotiations to determine the boundaries of their overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and continental shelves in the waters east of Taiwan. The main goals include clarifying the scope of resource development, strengthening defense and maritime security cooperation, and preventing unforeseen clashes. Japan regards this as a model of peaceful resolution under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and consistent with international law; China strongly protests the initiative. Since China considers Taiwan part of its own territory, it claims rights over the waters east of the island and objects that Japan and the Philippines should not negotiate boundaries without Chinese involvement.

China has long argued for the legitimacy of the nine-dash line in the South China Sea, asserting that the islands and waters of the South China Sea are Chinese territory. Less noted is that the northeastern end of the nine-dash line runs along southeastern Taiwan, and the “2023 edition of China’s standard map,” published by the Ministry of Natural Resources on August 28, 2023, adds a tenth dash line east of Taiwan. This confirms China’s strong interest in those waters. China has also deployed carrier groups there and repeatedly conducted exercises suggesting preparation for an invasion of Taiwan from the east.

As China’s interest in the waters east of Taiwan grew, the People’s Liberation Army commenced activities there. Then, in June 2026, China criticized Japan and the Philippines at the same moment the China Coast Guard (CCG) began conducting law enforcement patrols off Taiwan’s eastern coast. It has kept those patrols going in an effort to normalize them. Military, legal, and administrative functions are now acting in concert.

These recent actions are reminiscent of the Kinmen Islands episode in February 2024. On February 14,........

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