The ongoing power struggle between the Kandahari and Kabuli factions of the Taliban has garnered significant attention in post-Soviet media spaces. This internal conflict, which could potentially lead to a shift in Afghanistan’s leadership, reveals the complex dynamics at play within the organization. 

Central to this struggle are the disagreements between the leader of the Taliban movement, Mullah Haibatullah Akhundzada, and Minister of Interior Sirajuddin Haqqani, concerning governance approaches and Afghanistan’s international role. These internal divisions highlight the lack of a cohesive vision among the Taliban’s top leadership. Such fragmentation at the highest levels of leadership has several significant implications, and serves to exacerbate the international community’s distrust toward Afghanistan’s current authorities.

However, the lack of international recognition for the Taliban government extends beyond this internal discord. Several factors contribute to this continued non-recognition, ranging from the Taliban’s problematic history and widespread global condemnation of its lack of inclusivity, to the shifting geopolitical landscape and the persistent presence of radical and terrorist elements in Afghanistan.

These, and other factors, combined with the internal power struggles, create substantial obstacles to international recognition. Despite controlling Afghanistan for over three years, the Taliban regime remains largely unrecognized globally, with only limited engagement from neighboring states and powers like China and Russia.

A Matter of Distrust

The international community’s distrust of the Taliban government is a primary obstacle to recognition, stemming from historical precedent, a lack of inclusive governance, and internal political fragmentation.

The limited recognition afforded to the Taliban during its first period of rule (1996-2001), followed by its swift ouster after the September 11 attacks, inspires a climate of skepticism. Political elites in countries like Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, and India view this history as a cautionary tale, leading them to avoid rushing into recognition. 

In addition, a critical demand from the international community is the establishment of an inclusive government representing all political forces and ethnic minorities in Afghanistan. Despite claims of diversity, Pashtun dominance persists within the Taliban, and the regime’s non-democratic seizure of power in August 2021 raises questions about its domestic political legitimacy. Concerns over the representation and satisfaction of ethnic minorities, social groups, and women remain prominent, particularly among the United States and European Union countries.

Frequent clashes between the Kandahar-based Taliban faction and the Haqqani Network, meanwhile, signal internal instability. The contrasting leadership styles of the reclusive Mullah Akhundzada and the more visible Sirajuddin Haqqani have fueled perceptions of a divided Afghanistan, potentially splitting into rival........

© The Diplomat