The Pulse | Diplomacy | South Asia

Iran War and India’s Diplomatic Failures

A country of India’s size and energy dependence cannot afford to place all its geopolitical bets on one side of a regional divide.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu shake hands during Modi’s visit to Israel, February 26, 2026.

The recent shortage of LPG and rising petrol prices in several Indian cities is not merely an economic disruption; it is also the consequence of a deeper diplomatic failure. What is unfolding in Indian kitchens and restaurants today reflects the costs of India’s growing alignment with the United States and Israel, while abandoning the cautious neutrality that once defined its West Asia policy.

In a region where conflicts can disrupt global energy flows overnight, India’s decision to drift away from long-standing partners such as Iran now appears increasingly short-sighted.

For decades, India maintained a delicate balance in West Asia. It cultivated strong ties with Iran for energy security and regional connectivity, while also maintaining cordial relations with Israel and the Arab Gulf states. This policy of strategic autonomy ensured that India remained on good terms with competing regional powers without becoming entangled in their rivalries.

That equilibrium has eroded in recent years.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has visibly deepened its strategic partnership with Israel and strengthened its geopolitical alignment with Washington. While closer relations with these partners brought advantages in defense and technology, they also came at the cost of weakening India’s independent posture in the region. Iran — once among India’s most reliable energy partners — gradually slipped down the priority list.

The consequences of that shift came to the fore during Modi’s much-hyped visit to Israel, where he described Israel as the “fatherland” and India as the “motherland,” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bestowing upon him the “Medal of the Knesset.”

The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei further exposed the contradictions in India’s current foreign policy. New Delhi did not strongly condemn the United States and Israel for the killing, even as tensions across West Asia surged. More tellingly, reports indicated that Indian diplomats were initially instructed not to sign condolence books at Iranian embassies — a move widely interpreted as an attempt to avoid offending Israel and the United States.

But silence in diplomacy is rarely neutral.

Within days, the government appeared to recognize the diplomatic cost of that hesitation. First, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi on March 5 to sign the condolence book. Then, a senior leader of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, visited the Iranian Embassy and also signed the condolence book, expressing sympathy and calling for peace. Coming as late as it did, however, the gesture looked less like a confident diplomatic signal and more like an attempt at damage control.

The awkwardness of India’s response reflects a deeper strategic dilemma. By moving too close to one camp in a deeply polarized region, India has limited its room for maneuver at precisely the moment when flexibility is most needed.

The impact is not confined to diplomatic optics. As conflict disrupts energy shipments through the Persian Gulf, the consequences are already being felt at home. Shortages of commercial LPG cylinders have begun affecting restaurants and hotels in major cities, while petrol and cooking gas prices are under pressure. For a country that imports the overwhelming majority of its energy needs, such vulnerabilities highlight the risks of neglecting long-standing partnerships that once provided strategic leverage.

Iran was never just another supplier of oil. It was a critical pillar of India’s West Asia strategy — offering energy security, access to Central Asia, and a geopolitical counterbalance in a complex region. Allowing that relationship to wither under external pressure has left India more exposed to regional shocks.

India’s foreign policy has long celebrated the principle of strategic autonomy — the ability to pursue national interests without becoming dependent on any single power bloc. Yet the events surrounding Khamenei’s death suggest that this autonomy may be eroding. When even signing a condolence book becomes diplomatically sensitive, it raises questions about how much independent space India truly retains.

The current crisis should serve as a warning. In West Asia, alliances shift quickly and conflicts escalate unpredictably. A country of India’s size and energy dependence cannot afford to place all its geopolitical bets on one side of a regional divide.

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The recent shortage of LPG and rising petrol prices in several Indian cities is not merely an economic disruption; it is also the consequence of a deeper diplomatic failure. What is unfolding in Indian kitchens and restaurants today reflects the costs of India’s growing alignment with the United States and Israel, while abandoning the cautious neutrality that once defined its West Asia policy.

In a region where conflicts can disrupt global energy flows overnight, India’s decision to drift away from long-standing partners such as Iran now appears increasingly short-sighted.

For decades, India maintained a delicate balance in West Asia. It cultivated strong ties with Iran for energy security and regional connectivity, while also maintaining cordial relations with Israel and the Arab Gulf states. This policy of strategic autonomy ensured that India remained on good terms with competing regional powers without becoming entangled in their rivalries.

That equilibrium has eroded in recent years.

Under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India has visibly deepened its strategic partnership with Israel and strengthened its geopolitical alignment with Washington. While closer relations with these partners brought advantages in defense and technology, they also came at the cost of weakening India’s independent posture in the region. Iran — once among India’s most reliable energy partners — gradually slipped down the priority list.

The consequences of that shift came to the fore during Modi’s much-hyped visit to Israel, where he described Israel as the “fatherland” and India as the “motherland,” with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu bestowing upon him the “Medal of the Knesset.”

The killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei further exposed the contradictions in India’s current foreign policy. New Delhi did not strongly condemn the United States and Israel for the killing, even as tensions across West Asia surged. More tellingly, reports indicated that Indian diplomats were initially instructed not to sign condolence books at Iranian embassies — a move widely interpreted as an attempt to avoid offending Israel and the United States.

But silence in diplomacy is rarely neutral.

Within days, the government appeared to recognize the diplomatic cost of that hesitation. First, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri visited the Iranian Embassy in New Delhi on March 5 to sign the condolence book. Then, a senior leader of India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, visited the Iranian Embassy and also signed the condolence book, expressing sympathy and calling for peace. Coming as late as it did, however, the gesture looked less like a confident diplomatic signal and more like an attempt at damage control.

The awkwardness of India’s response reflects a deeper strategic dilemma. By moving too close to one camp in a deeply polarized region, India has limited its room for maneuver at precisely the moment when flexibility is most needed.

The impact is not confined to diplomatic optics. As conflict disrupts energy shipments through the Persian Gulf, the consequences are already being felt at home. Shortages of commercial LPG cylinders have begun affecting restaurants and hotels in major cities, while petrol and cooking gas prices are under pressure. For a country that imports the overwhelming majority of its energy needs, such vulnerabilities highlight the risks of neglecting long-standing partnerships that once provided strategic leverage.

Iran was never just another supplier of oil. It was a critical pillar of India’s West Asia strategy — offering energy security, access to Central Asia, and a geopolitical counterbalance in a complex region. Allowing that relationship to wither under external pressure has left India more exposed to regional shocks.

India’s foreign policy has long celebrated the principle of strategic autonomy — the ability to pursue national interests without becoming dependent on any single power bloc. Yet the events surrounding Khamenei’s death suggest that this autonomy may be eroding. When even signing a condolence book becomes diplomatically sensitive, it raises questions about how much independent space India truly retains.

The current crisis should serve as a warning. In West Asia, alliances shift quickly and conflicts escalate unpredictably. A country of India’s size and energy dependence cannot afford to place all its geopolitical bets on one side of a regional divide.

Asif Ullah Khan is a veteran journalist who has held senior editorial positions at The Times of India, Khaleej Times, The Hindustan Times, and The Brunei Times. He currently writes for The Diplomat, The Wire, The India Legal, The ASEAN Post, and other international publications.

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