Flashpoints | Diplomacy | South Asia

Stakes Rise for Pakistan as it Prepares to Host US-Iran Face-to-Face Talks

If talks progress and the war ends with a permanent solution, Pakistan will emerge as a crucial player in West Asia. If not, it can expect turmoil.

Pakistan is preparing to host American and Iranian delegations in Islamabad for critical negotiations to end the 39-day war. The stakes for Islamabad are extremely high.

This development has been made possible by a fragile two-week ceasefire secured by Pakistan’s last-ditch efforts.

Already, there have been ceasefire violations undermining the prospects of a permanent settlement of the conflict. As things stand between Iran and the U.S., there is no common ground between them other than agreeing to engage in talks. Even if they agree to continue talks after the first round in Islamabad, that will be no small achievement. Indeed, it will be an encouraging outcome. Conversely, if talks derail and fighting resumes, it will put Pakistan in a very precarious situation.

Pakistan’s high-risk, high-reward diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran is the outcome of two factors. The foremost among these factors is Pakistan’s Strategic Mutual Defense Agreement (SMDA) with Saudi Arabia, which it signed last year. If talks falter and the war resumes, Pakistan may be compelled to enter the conflict on the Saudi side.

Prior to clinching a temporary ceasefire, Pakistan condemned the Iranian drone and missile attack on Saudi Arabia’s Jubail industrial hub and petrochemical complex and vowed to defend the Kingdom. The tone and tenor of the statement were somber and frustrating.

Due to Pakistan’s neutral stance on the U.S.-Israel war against Iran, its relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have already taken a hit. Notwithstanding Pakistan’s fragile economic situation, which is kept afloat by loans from friendly countries and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the UAE has asked Pakistan to repay a $3.5 billion loan.

In 2015, Pakistan refused to become part of the Saudi-led coalition against Yemen. If the conflict prolongs and Saudi Arabia invokes the SMDA and asks Pakistan to defend the Kingdom against Iran, Islamabad will be compelled to join the war. If Islamabad refuses, it will permanently damage its strategic, economic and friendly ties with Riyadh.

Conversely, if Pakistan enters the war on the Saudi side, it will come with its own set of security complications. The Pakistani military is already overstretched fighting two full-fledged insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Furthermore, Pakistan’s relations with India and Afghanistan are strained. Despite a fragile ceasefire with India, which has largely held since the May 2025 military exchanges, tensions have not subsided. Recently, China has mediated to defuse tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, but the former has maintained that it will continue to hit terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan if cross-border terrorist attacks continue. Amid this tense situation, Pakistan cannot afford to have a volatile border with Iran.

No country can afford hot borders on three sides while fighting two full-blown insurgencies in two of its four provinces. More importantly, any instability in the Iran-Pakistan border area will create gaps that insurgent and terrorist groups will exploit.

At the same time, if Pakistan is pushed into the war, it will have serious consequences for the country’s sectarian harmony. Pakistan has paid a huge price in blood and treasure to put the genie of........

© The Diplomat