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Rising Gas Prices Put Republicans on the Defensive With Voters

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Katherine Matt is an intern for The Daily Signal.

Operation Epic Fury continues to dominate the headlines as the United States and Israel pummel the Iranian regime. But the defining issue for American voters hits closer to home: concern about their personal finances.

With the midterm elections approaching in seven months, recent polling reveals that the economy remains the issue most likely to influence the outcome of federal and state races. 

It was 34 years ago, in the aftermath of another Middle East conflict in Iraq, when then-candidate Bill Clinton‘s political adviser James Carville famously said, “It’s the economy, stupid.” Clinton, a Democrat governor, defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush that November. For most Americans, everyday concerns—gas, groceries, and rent—matter far more than foreign conflicts or political drama, according to pollster Scott Rasmussen. When the economy is strong, voters are content. When it falters, anxiety rises and the party in power pays the price. 

Economic Anxiety Rising  

New polling from Napolitan News Service suggests that anxiety is growing. Americans are increasingly pessimistic about their own financial situation, with rising gas and grocery prices making it harder to make ends meet. 

Get today's biggest stories in under 8 minutes.@ScottWRasmussen covers:1) Some really bad news on the economy2) New numbers on perceptions in Iran3) A look at how deep partisan polarization has become. Is it warranted? pic.twitter.com/0peVC57mOt— Napolitan News Service (@NapolitanNews) March 18, 2026

Get today's biggest stories in under 8 minutes.@ScottWRasmussen covers:1) Some really bad news on the economy2) New numbers on perceptions in Iran3) A look at how deep partisan polarization has become. Is it warranted? pic.twitter.com/0peVC57mOt

According to the latest data, 38% of voters rate the economy as poor, up three points from last week. Meanwhile, 40% say the economy is good, a sharp 12-point drop. Even more concerning for incumbent Republicans, 53% of voters believe the economy is getting worse, compared to just 23% who say it is improving.

Rasmussen warned that these numbers should not be underestimated. Only 24% of Americans say their personal finances are improving, while 39% report they are getting worse. That gap signals deepening dissatisfaction. 

Lacking Economic Confidence

Rasmussen’s latest polling data resembles the economic sentiment leading up to the 2024 election, when economic frustration played a key role in Donald Trump’s victory. Following that election, optimism rebounded. By mid-2025, the number of Americans who felt their finances were improving nearly matched those who felt they were worsening. 

That progress, however, was disrupted by the longest-ever government shutdown in November and December, which eroded confidence. While sentiment improved again after the government reopened and economic messaging refocused, the stability proved fragile.  

More than a third (36%) of voters say the country is currently in a recession, up 5 points from 2 weeks ago.https://t.co/5Rl1fwvxfm1,000 RV by @ScottWRasmussen pic.twitter.com/7e6QrIg5SG— Napolitan News Service (@NapolitanNews) March 19, 2026

More than a third (36%) of voters say the country is currently in a recession, up 5 points from 2 weeks ago.https://t.co/5Rl1fwvxfm1,000 RV by @ScottWRasmussen pic.twitter.com/7e6QrIg5SG

Over the past 10 months, confidence has remained relatively steady. Voters who reported their personal finances improving remained comparable to those who reported their personal finances worsening.  

Today, there is a 15-point gap between those two numbers—the worst since Trump’s election. 

A key factor appears to be instability with foreign conflicts, particularly the war with Iran, which has driven up gas prices. For many Americans living paycheck to paycheck, higher fuel costs quickly ripple into every aspect of daily life, leaving less money for everyday essential. 

Narrow Window Before November  

The political challenge is clear: Bad news erodes confidence quickly but rebuilding that confidence takes time. Rasmussen estimates it could take up to six months for economic sentiment to recover from the current downturn, placing any potential rebound close to the midterm elections. 

That leaves Republicans with a narrow window to act, he noted. They must address voters’ concerns, stabilize economic conditions, and restore confidence before the political consequences set in. 

If they fail, the outcome could be decisive. As Rasmussen noted, if current trends hold through November, Democrats are likely to regain control of the House of Representatives and potentially the Senate.  

Improving personal finances could shift the balance—but without change, Republicans face a steep uphill battle. 

The lesson is simple, Rasmussen said: Voters respond to their personal financial reality. When they feel worse off, their trust in political leaders declines. For Republicans, the question is whether they can win it back before it’s too late.

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