Forecasters expect the El Niño now underway in the tropical Pacific to strengthen into a strong or very strong climate driver later this year.

When an El Niño arrives, it reorganises rainfall patterns around the world. Parts of the Americas and east Africa tend to get heavier rain, while monsoonal rains in Asia get weaker and drier conditions settle over eastern Australia, southeast Asia, India and southern Africa.

This mix of heat and disrupted water supplies could have real consequences for food supply, especially rice. El Niño doesn’t tend to hit wheat as hard, because a bad season in one region is often offset elsewhere. But rice is different. Production is concentrated in Asia and only a small share is traded.

The last El Niño in 2023-24 threatened rice supplies. This one may be worse for farming, because climate change is adding extra heat on top of disrupted rainfall.

Why rice is the crop to watch

Over half the world’s population relies on rice. India and China grow more than half of the world’s supply, and rice supplies more than half of all daily calories in countries such as Bangladesh, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Poorer households spend the largest share of income on food, so........

© The Conversation