After much back-and-forth over several months, President Donald Trump announced on July 9, 2025, that he planned to levy a 50% tariff on Brazilian exports to the United States. While Brazilian authorities, along with leaders of most other countries, have been expecting new tariffs given their centrality to Trump’s economic agenda, the announcement seemingly caught Brazilian officials off guard, as trade negotiations between the two nations were still ongoing.

Brazil President Lula da Silva was quick in reacting, stating his country could respond in kind, if tariffs indeed come into effect on Aug. 1.

There has been much speculation about the reasons behind Trump’s decision and timing, with some onlookers noting the proximity to the recent meeting of the BRICS nations, a grouping of emerging economies, including Brazil, which had already drawn Trump’s ire. Others argued that this was a protective measure to defend key U.S. industries, such as steel, which have been facing continued difficulties against cheaper products from Brazil.

The clearest answer, however, came from Trump himself.

In a letter to Lula, the U.S. president indicated that his main grievance with Brazil is in fact the trial that former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro faces in front of that country’s highest court. The former far-right firebrand is charged for refusing to recognize the result of the last presidential election in October 2022 and for allegedly having

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