Victoria’s election on November 28 has taken on a drama and significance we wouldn’t have anticipated a year ago.

A sudden late change of premier, following an earlier switch of Liberal leader, and the big push by the strongly polling One Nation, with leader Pauline Hanson planning a major campaigning role, have transformed the climate and the playing field for the contest.

The national implications have grown, even acknowledging that voters distinguish between federal and state choices. If state opposition leader Jess Wilson can win, the Liberal party, presently on its knees around the country, will receive a shot of confidence federally. But if One Nation does well, especially in the upper house but also securing a clutch of lower house seats, its momentum nationally will continue and the Liberals’ and Nationals’ crises will worsen.

The outcome of the battle between the right of centre parties – the Liberal National Coalition versus One Nation – is crucial for the conservatives’ chances of governing the state after November 28. If the Coalition won but in minority, it would likely be dependent on One Nation for supply and confidence. But speculation about the Liberal-Nationals going into some sort of formal coalition with One Nation appears far-fetched.

If Labor hung on, say in minority government, it could truly claim a Scott-Morrison type “miracle”.

The election is made harder to predict because, on one hand, the government has a huge buffer (the opposition needs 16 seats for majority government) while on the other, the Labor brand is toxic.

As if to underline the latter point, the Independent Broad-based Anti-corruption Commission’s........

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