One Nation’s surge can no longer be seen as a blip or an aberration. As the results in the Farrer byelection showed, the right-wing populist party – which has been hovering on the fringes of Australian politics for 30 years – is now a serious electoral force.

While the byelection was considered likely to be a close contest between One Nation’s David Farley and independent Michelle Milthorpe, in the end voters delivered an easy win to Farley. His is the first One Nation victory in a federal House of Representatives seat.

Results on Sunday morning showed Farley attained 57.3% of the two-candidate preferred vote against Milthorpe’s 42.7%. Primary votes for One Nation surged from 6.6% in the 2025 election, to 39.4% as of Sunday morning. Milthorpe’s primary increased 20% to 28.4%, likely benefitting from Labor’s decision not to contest the byelection.

The increased support for One Nation was largely drawn from the previous Liberal vote. One Nation was also helped considerably by the Liberals opting to preference Farley over Milthorpe. Farley received approximately 60% of Coalition preferences. The Liberal total declined from the 43.4% primary achieved by Sussan Ley in 2025, to an anaemic 12.4% for new Liberal candidate Raissa Butkowski.

This outcome represents a dramatic collapse in Coalition support. But it also shows a huge surge in support for One Nation, which is now........

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