The last of the US-led coalition forces are leaving Iraq. It’s a significant bonus for Iran. The withdrawal date, September 30, was also the date by which Baghdad had pledged to bring numerous powerful Iran-backed militias under state control. But this deadline looks certain to be missed.

This effectively means that, at a moment when Washington is engaged in a costly conflict intended to weaken Iran militarily and economically, it is simultaneously reducing its military presence in the country that has arguably provided Tehran with its greatest strategic gain of the post-Saddam era.

Iraq has its own powerful nationalist instincts and has repeatedly tried to balance both US and Iranian influence and steer its own path. But the US withdrawal now risks removing an important counterweight to Iran, leaving Tehran with a great deal of sway in Iraq’s political and economic affairs.

The irony is that Tehran did not create the conditions that made this possible by itself. It had a lot of help from Washington.

Iran’s influence in Iraq did not suddenly emerge after 2003. Like the US, Tehran had spent decades cultivating Iraqi opposition movements during Saddam Hussein’s rule. These included the Islamic Dawa Party and the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq, both of which wield enormous power in Iraq today.

Perhaps the most powerful Iran-backed proxy operating in the political-military nexus is the Badr Organisation, which was created in Iran during the 1980s, supported by the Revolutionary Guards and fought alongside Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.

When Saddam Hussain was toppled in 2003 as a........

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