It’s the height of summer and many Australians have already experienced heatwaves, heavy rains and even significant bushfires over the Christmas and New Year period. But could we be in for something different as summer draws to a close?

Lower sea surface water temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean are leading to speculation about a La Niña event starting to form, raising the risk of wet weather. That would be unusual because La Niña events typically start in winter and get going properly in spring, before “decaying” in late summer and autumn.

Given the time of year, it would be hard for a proper La Niña event to get going now. But the Bureau of Meteorology’s outlook does point to a probable wet end to summer over most areas of Australia.

As the climate continues to change, there are challenges in monitoring and predicting El Niño and La Niña events. The best source of information is the Bureau’s outlooks as they encapsulate lots of climate information and don’t just focus on one driver of Australia’s climate.

La Niña events are characterised by below-average temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and warmer waters in the west nearer to Australia. They often, but not always, bring wetter conditions for eastern and northern Australia. In contrast El Niño events,........

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