With less than five months until the Victorian state election, a large-sample Redbridge poll has One Nation on 27% of the primary vote, with Labor and the Coalition tied at 26%. Right-wing parties are likely to win a majority in the upper house.

Newspoll federal aggregate data for April to June has Labor slumping in Victoria and South Australia, but holding its ground in the other mainland states.

The only new federal poll this week is a Morgan poll that has One Nation’s slump continuing, down nine points on primary votes to 22.5% compared with the Morgan poll two weeks ago.

Victorian Redbridge poll has near three-way tie on primary votes

The Victorian state election is in late November. A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted June 17–28 from a large sample of 5,516, gave One Nation 27% of the primary vote (up three since the February Redbridge poll), Labor 26% (up one), the Coalition 26% (down two), the Greens 13% (steady) and all Others 8% (down two).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 54–46, a two-point gain for the Coalition. But Labor led One Nation by 52–48, a one-point gain for One Nation. Two early June Victorian polls had Labor third on primary votes behind One Nation and the Coalition.

The Greens and Others were asked which of Labor, the Coalition or One Nation they preferred. In this three-party preferred, Labor had 39.9%, the Coalition 30.1% and One Nation 29.9%.

Labor Premier Jacinta Allan had a dismal -42 net favourability (59% unfavourable, 17% favourable). The Financial........

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