With less than four months until the Victorian election, two polls that were taken after last week’s change of premier have the Coalition leading Labor after preferences by 52–48 or 53–47. One Nation’s primary vote has dropped 3–5 points since June to be at 22% in both polls.

In federal polls, a Redbridge poll had the combined primary vote for One Nation and the Coalition surging six points since late June to 53%. I believe this is a record high for the right vote in any poll this term.

However, in Morgan the right vote was unchanged since the previous week at 47.5%, suggesting Redbridge is an outlier.

Two Victorian polls have Coalition leading and One Nation down

The Victorian election is in late November. There are two Victorian polls that were both conducted after Ben Carroll replaced Jacinta Allan as premier on July 28.

A Redbridge and Accent Research poll for The Financial Review, conducted July 28 to August 1 from a sample of 1,014, gave the Coalition 30% of the primary vote (up four since the late June Redbridge poll), Labor 23% (down three), One Nation 22% (down five), the Greens 14% (up one) and all Others 11% (up three).

By respondent preferences, the Coalition led Labor by 53–47, a one-point gain for Labor.

Carroll’s net favourability was -15 (29–14 unfavourable). This is a large improvement on Allan’s -42. Liberal leader Jess Wilson’s was steady at 13 (33–20 favourable). Pauline........

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