A special DemosAU poll has Labor winning 68 of the 150 House of Representatives seats, well short of the 76 needed for a majority. One Nation is on 60 seats, the Coalition 13, the Greens three and Others six.

In last week’s Morgan poll, One Nation was down 5.5 points to 22.5%. Morgan has recently been volatile regarding One Nation’s vote.

Federal redistributions have been finalised in three states and territories, and there are polls of New South Wales and the ACT.

Multilevel Regression with Poststratification (MRP) polls use modelling and large sample sizes to estimate the outcome of each House of Representatives seat if an election were held now. Long fieldwork periods mean they can’t be used to infer recent poll trends.

A DemosAU MRP poll for Capital Brief, conducted from May 27 to July 11 from a sample of 9,343, gave Labor a point estimate of 68 of the 150 House seats (down 15 since the January to March DemosAU MRP poll), One Nation 60 (up eight), the Coalition 13 (up four), the Greens three (up two) and all Others six (up one).

To reach a majority, 76 seats are required. If this poll’s results were reflected at an election, Labor would lose its majority, with One Nation and the Coalition combined leading Labor in seats by 73–68. One Nation would have a good chance to form government.

Seat ranges in this MRP poll were 60–72 seats for Labor, 53–66 for One Nation, 11–22 for the Coalition, 1–5 for the Greens and........

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