With just eight days until the May 3 federal election, and with in-person early voting well under way, Labor has taken a seven-point lead in a national YouGov poll and an 11-point lead in a Morgan poll. An exit poll of early voters is also encouraging for Labor.

A national YouGov poll, conducted April 17–22 from a sample of 1,500, gave Labor a 53.5–46.5 lead, a 0.5-point gain for Labor since the April 11–15 YouGov poll. This is Labor’s biggest lead in YouGov this term.

Primary votes were 33.5% Labor (up 0.5), 31% Coalition (down two), 14% Greens (up one), 10.5% One Nation (up 3.5), 2% Trumpet of Patriots (steady), 5% independents (down four) and 4% others (up one). In this poll, the Coalition has lost votes on its right to One Nation.

Using 2022 election preference flows would give Labor about a 55–45 lead from these primary votes. YouGov is applying preference flows from its previous MRP poll that was conducted from late February to late March.

However, recent polls that use respondent preferences suggest the gap in the Coalition’s favour between respondent and 2022 preference flows has dropped to nearly zero. This means YouGov’s current preference assumptions may be too pro-Coalition. The Poll Bludger expects another YouGov MRP poll this weekend.

While the gap between Morgan and YouGov’s headline voting intentions is two points, Morgan is using respondent preferences for all their polls, while YouGov uses respondent preferences from its last MRP poll. By 2022 election flows, the gap is only 0.5 points.

Here is the poll graph of Labor’s two-party vote in national polls. If YouGov and Morgan are right, Labor is likely headed for a landslide re-election. The only recent poll that has had the Coalition in a decent position was the April 14–16........

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