One Nation may well win Sussan Ley’s seat – that would be terrible for all of us

March 5, 2026 — 5:00am

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It is not even remotely funny, but independent federal MP Helen Haines is convinced that the Farrer byelection caused by the departure of former opposition leader Sussan Ley will end up a two-horse race between the community independent candidate Michelle Milthorpe and One Nation.

Haines, whose electorate of Indi borders Farrer, and who retained the seat last May after scoring a primary vote of 42.3 per cent, shudders at the thought that One Nation is even in contention.

The reason for that, she says, is because the Coalition’s behaviour since the election has turned it into a “laughing stock”.

Haines remains hopeful that Milthorpe, who came in second to Ley after securing a 20 per cent primary vote in May and has not stopped working the electorate since, will triumph.

Even in September, the mother of the community independents movement, Cathy McGowan, told me that if Ley lost the leadership and quit parliament, Milthorpe would win the byelection. That was before One Nation began taking chunks out of the once-major parties.

Milthorpe, who prefers not to be branded a teal, sounds both smart and sensible. She is embedded in the community through her work as a teacher, particularly with disabled kids. Last May, she won every booth in Albury. She is confident, as is Haines, that regional voters will not respond well to Pauline........

© The Age