Origin’s kryptonite saw the Blues adopt a Maroons state of mind

July 13, 2026 — 11:33am

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In the wash-up of Wednesday’s Origin decider, little focus has been put on just how awful Queensland were.

With 50 missed tackles and a 70 per cent completion rate, the Maroons produced the standard of a bad club team (by comparison, the Dolphins missed 36 tackles and completed 69 per cent of their sets on Saturday, and lost 66-0).

In commentary for Nine, Phil Gould said Queensland “did not handle favouritism”.

I looked up the Origin records to see if either state ever handles favouritism because I had the impression that being the red-hot tip to win an Origin match is one of the best predictors of failure.

This year, the favourites (as measured by pre-match odds, a more reliable gauge of opinion than expert tipsters) lost all three Origin matches.

Over the past 10 series, the pre-match favourites have won 12 of 30 games.

Of the 23 times New South Wales have been favourites (go figure), they have lost 13.

Queensland have been pre-match favourites seven times and won just twice.........

© The Age