On the morning of October 7, 2023, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, affiliated with Hamas, broke out from the land where they had been confined behind concrete walls for 17 years and launched the 'Al-Aqsa Flood' attack against Israel. This marked the beginning of the Hamas-Israel war, which lasted for 15 months and has now ended with a permanent ceasefire.

This war was an unbalanced and immoral conflict between a coalition of states with massive economies and powerful militaries—led by Israel and its unconditional supporters, including the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France, and India—against 2.3 million civilian Gazans and their resistance group, Hamas. Throughout the war, Israel’s actions, which blatantly disregarded international law, including acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes, were justified and shielded by these nations under the pretext of legitimate self-defense. However, in the end, the true victors were those who remained steadfast and sought refuge in the help of Allah, the ultimate conqueror.

According to figures from the Palestinian Ministry of Health, by the end of December, Israeli attacks had killed nearly 47,000 people, 70% of them women and children, right before the eyes of the world, while at least 110,000 others were injured. This meant that in Gaza, one in every 50 people had been killed, and one in every 20 had been wounded. Moreover, a study published by the medical journal The Lancet in January revealed that the actual death toll was 40% higher than reported.

Israel, which committed genocide against the Palestinian people in collaboration with major powers, ultimately surrendered in the face of the unwavering resilience of the people of Gaza who refused to abandon their land. Forced to acknowledge the reality on the ground, Israel had no choice but to sit at the negotiating table and agree to a permanent ceasefire with Hamas, the very group it had long declared as an enemy that must be eliminated.

Why Was Israel Forced to Agree to A Permanent Ceasefire After Nine Months?

The permanent ceasefire agreement accepted by Hamas and signed by the Israeli government was identical to the deal proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden nine months earlier.

On May 31, 2024, Biden called on Hamas to accept his three-phase roadmap for a permanent ceasefire, and Hamas responded positively. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected the proposal, stating, "Israel’s conditions for ending the war remain unchanged: the destruction of Hamas’ military and administrative capabilities, the release of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel. Without meeting these conditions, the idea that Israel would agree to a permanent ceasefire is unrealistic."

Under intense global pressure, the Biden administration was forced to call for a ceasefire. However, this call was largely a tactic to appease public outrage while buying time for Netanyahu to pursue his goal of eliminating Hamas. While ceasefire negotiations continued, the U.S. simultaneously supplied Israel with billions of dollars in military aid. In July 2024, addressing the U.S. Congress amid a standing ovation, Netanyahu openly acknowledged this strategy, declaring, "Give us the weapons faster, and we will finish the job faster."

However, over the past nine months, Netanyahu failed to achieve any of the conditions he had set for a permanent ceasefire. He was unable to neutralize Hamas’ military and administrative infrastructure, he could not dismantle the tunnels, and he failed to weaken public support for Hamas in Gaza. Despite insisting that all hostages must be released as a precondition for any deal, he could not accomplish that either. In the end, he had no choice but to sit at the negotiating table with the very group he had labeled as terrorists.

Moreover, U.S. officials had to travel to Ankara and personally request President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to mediate Hamas’ return to negotiations. In his farewell speech, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Hamas agreed to rejoin the talks thanks to Erdoğan’s mediation. The fact that the U.S. — and by extension, Israel — turned to Turkey’s president, who has defined Israel as a terrorist state and compared Hamas to the Turkish independence movement Kuvay-i Milliye, was a clear sign that the regional dynamics had shifted significantly.

So, What Conditions Ultimately Forced Israel into A Ceasefire?

Israel’s Economy and Military Collapse as Opposition Rises

With its economy in ruins, Israel finally realized that it could no longer sustain this war, nor could it rely on threats and coercion to achieve its goals. By 2024, the country’s GDP had shrunk by 20.7%, while the cost of war had skyrocketed to nearly $100 billion. Around 60,000 businesses had shut down, and numerous investment projects were canceled. Meanwhile, international credit rating agencies continued to downgrade Israel’s credit score, further deepening its financial crisis.

As for the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF), soldiers had lost hope for victory and faith in their government. Many no longer wanted to fight, while reservists increasingly refused to report for duty. Designed for short-term military operations, the Israeli army found itself psychologically exhausted from this prolonged war, an experience it had never encountered before. The relentless bombings had worn out Israel’s aircraft and helicopter fleets, leaving them in urgent need of renewal. The country was also facing a severe ammunition shortage, compounding its military struggles. In short, the Al-Aqsa Flood attack exposed a harsh reality—without external protection and assistance, Israel was incapable of defending itself.

Meanwhile, as the war dragged on without success, domestic unity began........

© Stratejik Düşünce Enstitüsü