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Another Democratic primary, another progressive outsider vs. establishment-backed moderate that ended in a photo finish. Except this time the more moderate candidate won. That’s the story of last night’s highest-profile race, in which David Crowley, the Milwaukee County executive, narrowly beat Francesca Hong, a democratic socialist, to become the party’s nominee for Wisconsin governor. Crowley’s win was also a surprise, making it the second recent primary in which a Midwestern moderate has defied the polls. (In Michigan last week, a centrist congresswoman came from behind and nearly upset Abdul El-Sayed, a Bernie Sanders–endorsed progressive.)

But two elections does not necessarily a pattern make, particularly when those elections yielded two very different winners. And elsewhere, progressives had some big wins in last night’s primaries, so the struggle for the Democratic Party’s future remains far from settled. Let’s get into what happened, what it means, and what it doesn’t mean.

Back up. Who are Crowley and Hong?

Crowley is a former member of the State Assembly who in 2020 became the first Black person to lead Milwaukee County. But after launching his gubernatorial campaign last year, he struggled to gain traction and actually suspended his bid in July. Other moderates also floundered, leaving Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who represents a deep-blue State Assembly district, as the prohibitive favorite. But left-wing comments she made on social media a few years ago put her on the defensive—including support for abolishing the police and canceling Thanksgiving, positions she ultimately disavowed (though, according to my colleague Luke Winkie, not particularly well). Then, in the race’s final weeks, two other moderates dropped out and Crowley revived his campaign with the sitting Democratic governor’s endorsement. He was ultimately the only plausible option for voters worried that Hong’s controversies risked blowing the general election and ended up eking it out by less than half a percentage point.

That’s a tight margin! What else makes his win notable?

Mostly........

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