Trump Says the Deal With Iran Is Complete. Not So Fast.
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President Donald Trump proclaimed on Sunday, “The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” which wasn’t quite true for a few reasons.
First, what the United States and Iran agreed on wasn’t a deal but, as officials later put it, a “framework” of a deal. Second, what’s inside the frame is still very uncertain. Third, Iran subsequently announced that even this—formally known as a “memorandum of understanding”—would not be signed until Friday.
It seems that Trump was eager to announce whatever progress he had in mind to coincide with his birthday—which he was celebrating Sunday—just before flying off to the summit with his G7 colleagues, which he did shortly afterward, so that his failure to end the war in Iran would not be an issue.
The war still isn’t over—at best, Trump can boast of a 60-day ceasefire and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz—but he can act as if it is, and as if he is in control.
“I hereby fully authorize the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz,” he further wrote in his announcement of “the Deal,” adding, “Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow!” As if this is up to him, when, in fact, as far as anyone could tell on Monday, Iran remains in control of the strait, and in any case Trump does not.
American and Iranian officials publicly agree on a few things, none of them trivial, though not all that meaningful either: a ceasefire, the opening of the strait, the end of the U.S. blockade, and the start of negotiations—to last no longer than 60 days—of all remaining issues, including Iran’s nuclear program, Western sanctions of Iran’s economy, and the U.S. release of billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.
But the two sides differ in the details on all of these issues, and the details are, in the end, all that matters.
If they can resolve these differences over the next 60 days, this will be a remarkable achievement. If they cannot, then it will be just another blip in a decades-long confrontation, which Trump’s decision to go to war on Feb. 28—and his failure to convert its massive physical destruction to any strategic gain—has only intensified, mainly to Iran’s advantage.
The differences between the two sides are, for the most part, immense.
First, the ceasefire applies not only to the war in Iran but also to Israel’s war against Hezbollah in Lebanon—which the Iranians see as two theaters of the same conflict. A big source of tension here is that Israel was not party to the negotiation, and its top officials say they won’t be bound by any........
