Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre waited until the dying days of the election campaign to hold a rally in Saskatoon, his first in Saskatchewan.

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After the Conservatives swept Saskatchewan in two straight elections, the perception prevails that Pierre Poilievre’s party can count on this province almost unconditionally.

That probably explains why Poilievre waited until the dying days of the election campaign to hold a rally in Saskatoon, set for Thursday. And there seems little reason to doubt the Conservatives will once again dominate the province, even as another sweep appears unlikely.

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Hard-core Saskatchewan Conservatives probably prefer that Poilievre focus his attention elsewhere to try to secure an election win to make him Canada’s prime minister. No reasonable person believes federal elections are won or lost based on Saskatchewan’s 14 seats when there are 343 ridings.

But Poilievre also needs to maintain the Conservative base in provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, while expanding the party’s appeal elsewhere.

Based on current polling, not to mention previous results, eight seats in the province can be considered safe for the Conservatives.

The northern riding of Desnethe—Missinippi—Churchill River seems likely to go Liberal, preventing a third consecutive sweep, due to redrawn boundaries and a strong candidate in longtime NDP MLA Buckley Belanger.

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Regina—Wascana is also expected to be competitive, with former provincial Liberal leader Jeff Walters facing incumbent Conservative Michael Kram in the seat held for 26 years by Liberal stalwart Ralph Goodale.

Four other ridings could feature real races, based on current polling and previous results: Regina—Lewvan, Saskatoon South, Saskatoon West and Saskatoon—University. Only these six Saskatchewan seats featured a Conservative vote share below 50 per cent in the 2021 election.

Coupled with a Liberal surge and