Germany has the blues. So far, so ordinary. But, with only weeks to go before government-collapse-induced snap elections on February 23, Germany is also in a bit of an uproar.

Political competitors are taking the gloves off, striking at each other with insults and character assassination, while in the streets there are demonstrations with protesters numbering in, at least, the thousands, perhaps tens of thousands. The reason for the emotional-political spike is that the so-called “firewall” between the mainstream parties of the self-declared democratic center and their insurgent challengers on the right wing/far right is cracking. Or, to say it with Bloomberg, “German election taboos” have been broken.

The gist of the matter is that Friedrich Merz, the leader of Germany’s mainstream conservatives (CDU) and, as polls consistently show, most likely the next chancellor, has chosen the issue of migration to make a stand. Against the backdrop of several recent and severe lethal attacks in the cities of Mannheim, Solingen, Magdeburg, and Aschaffenburg that involved perpetrators from Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, and Syria, Merz introduced a package of measures in the German parliament (including a non-binding resolution and a draft law) aimed at a much harsher migration policy.

The non-binding resolution, which is largely symbolic, was debated and voted on first, on Wednesday, January 29. The law’s turn came two days later, on Friday, January 31. Both days were filled with high drama in Berlin, but the outcomes were different. On Wednesday, Merz won. On Friday, he lost because the draft measure with the clumsy (yes, in German, too) name “influx-limiting law” was voted down.

The full legislative process in Germany means that, in the end, the law would probably not have survived anyhow. But it is still easy to see why many observers, including at Bloomberg, consider this defeat a “shock setback” for Merz. After all, Merz lost because he could not prevent 12 members of his own party from withholding their support. Their votes would have been enough to tilt the scales in his favor. And yet those observers may be missing the whole picture. To see why, we need some background.

In Germany, as in many other countries, migration policy is a scalding-hot topic. It traditionally features among the top concerns of German voters. Indeed, some polls show that it is currently the single most important issue for them, solidly ahead of the stagnant-and-worse economy and leaving worries about wages and inflation, climate change and energy, and war far behind. But Merz’s initiative would not have had the same explosive power if not for another aspect: while explicitly rejecting any form of cooperation – now or after the elections – the conservative mainstream leader had, in effect, invited the right wing/far-right AfD party to vote for his proposals.

Merz keeps denying any intention of opening a path toward building a post-election........

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