Another round of violence between Lebanon and Israel is not a matter of if, but when. Israel managed to extract a series of tactical victories from the war so far, but did not possess the capacity to defeat Hezbollah decisively. Now that Israel seeks to maintain freedom of action inside Lebanon, it threatens a much more violent outbreak than what was stopped by the November 27 ceasefire.

Much of the analyses offered on the conflict between Lebanon and Israel, which erupted into a paroxysmal battle in September 2024, trace its origins back to October 8, 2023. However, this take is limited in its scope and also often misses key lessons from the history of the conflict.

A day after the Hamas-led October 7 attack against Israel, it became clear, through the public statements and actions of the Israelis, that the war they sought to launch was intended to inflict maximum collective punishment on the civilian population of Gaza. Although it often goes unrecognized due to the shocking effects of the Hamas raid, at least 413 Palestinians were killed inside Gaza that day, most of them civilians. The next day, the Lebanese group Hezbollah began opening fire on Israeli monitoring equipment set up in the illegally occupied Shebaa Farms area.

After Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and killed four Hezbollah members, the Lebanese armed group responded by opening fire on Israeli military sites and surveillance equipment on October 9. That same day, former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant declared a “complete siege” on Gaza and that “we are fighting against human animals” to justify blocking all food, water, and electricity from entering the territory.

Understanding the gravity of what had just happened, Hezbollah’s secretary general, Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah, understood that they were going to have to play a supporting role for the Palestinian armed groups in Gaza. However, the group did not want to drag Lebanon into a comprehensive war and repeatedly stressed this point. The one pledge that Nasrallah made was “Hamas will win,” offering no other red lines.

From October 8, 2023 to September 20, 2024, Israel was

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