Democrats shouldn’t start counting their chickens before they’ve hatched in the 2026 fight for control of the House of Representatives.

Yes, midterm elections are often challenging for the president’s party, and that could be doubly the case this cycle given President-elect Donald Trump’s confrontational style. The Republicans’ very narrow majority in the House also creates additional challenges for the GOP.

But Trump’s ability to mobilize his base in November and the small number of Republicans representing Democrat-friendly seats could limit Democratic House gains next year.

History strongly suggests Democratic gains are likely in 2026. The sitting president’s party has lost House seats in 17 of the last 19 midterm elections going back to 1950, with the two outliers, 1998 and 2002, largely explained by the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

In addition, only two of those 17 midterms saw the president’s party losing as few as five seats: in 1962 (four seats) and 1986 (five seats).

But looking at net seat changes focuses only on part of the political equation. Results often depend on how many........

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