Free Trade

Federal Reserve: Without Tariffs, Inflation Would Have Dropped to Pre-Pandemic Levels During 2025

New study finds that tariffs were responsible for the "entirety of the excess inflation in the core goods category."

Eric Boehm | 4.13.2026 12:00 PM

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(Illustration: Midjourney)

Tariffs implemented last year by President Donald Trump's administration are entirely to blame for the recent surge in prices for consumer and household goods.

Those tariffs have raised core goods prices by 3.1 percent, according to a new study by a trio of economists at the Federal Reserve. Those higher consumer prices were the result of retailers passing the cost of tariffs along the supply chain.

As of February 2026, the tariffs "can explain the entirety of the excess inflation in the core goods category since January 2025," the economists concluded. "Our........

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