So picture this: Governor Smith has been the incumbent leader of her state for nearly a full term. Depending on whom you ask, she's generally done well in this position and is generally well-regarded. This election season, she ran into a highly tenacious opponent in the race for the state capital, and all polls seemed to show Smith with a slight edge at best going into the election. Governor Smith did not seem phased, and she gave a speech the night of the election that (surprising to many) bordered on a victory speech, although the election officials were saying that the vote was too close to call by the time midnight came around.

At five the next morning, Governor Smith is rudely awakened by a text from her campaign manager. It simply said this: OMG—We lost. WTH!?!?!? Call me.

Governor Smith truly could not believe it. After all, the top polling agency in the region had her ahead by 5 percent going into election day. And she knows (in her mind) that she's done a great job. According to the state election board, she lost by less than half a percent.

She calls her campaign manager right away. They are both fuming. Each of them, quite genuinely, refuses to believe the news. This truly can't be, they thought—as if they were thinking as a single unit.

They immediately scour the data that are available regarding the election, and they start to see all kinds of things that don't seem to make sense to them. For instance, Essex County reportedly had a 75 percent voter turnout rate. That didn't make any sense—historically, the highest that county has ever posted was 33 percent—not even close! Further, according to the data from the Election Board, Smith lost her own home county by more than 10 percent. Impossible! Smith and her campaign manager thought.

This........

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