It is easy to imagine that the Naturalistic Decision-Making movement never got started.

It is also easy to imagine the impact in so many communities of not having an NDM framework.

This counterfactual exercise was a useful method for appreciating what NDM has contributed.

The Naturalistic Decision-Making movement just celebrated its 40th anniversary at the 18th NDM meeting in Charlottesville, Virginia, in June 2026.

Afterwards I ran a counterfactual exercise with some colleagues to capture what the Naturalistic Decision-Making (NDM) movement has contributed to the field of psychology. The exercise was valuable for highlighting the value added of NDM. It was also valuable as a tactic for using counterfactuals.

Here is a partial list of what we came up with:

Balkanization.........

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