STANFORD—Six months after last year’s United Nations Climate Conference (COP30), the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) has gone from being a headline-grabbing promise to a test of whether climate finance can survive contact with markets, politics, and time.

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The TFFF’s purpose—conserving tropical forests—is of paramount importance. Tropical deforestation and land-use changes have contributed to nearly one-fifth of the world’s cumulative carbon dioxide emissions since 1850. Tropical forests are also among the world’s most biodiverse ecosystems and home to many Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

But tropical countries face opportunity costs when conserving forests, so it falls on northern countries to compensate them for conservation efforts that benefit everyone. Such was the........

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