As global tensions rise, nuclear-armed states are failing to meet their disarmament obligations under the Non-Proliferation Treaty, while recent conflicts risk accelerating proliferation.

This week in New York, diplomats from almost every nation have convened for the month-long 11th Review Conference (RevCon) of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). While the stakes could barely be higher, in the current environment of imperial aggression and rampant violations of international law, expectations are low.

Most states, including Australia, consider the NPT as a cornerstone of international law in relation to nuclear technology, weapons and disarmament.

The NPT is essentially a bargain struck between the states in the late 1960s that had nuclear weapons and those that did not. The first five nuclear-armed states – China, France, Russia/USSR, UK and US – World War II victors and permanent members of the UN Security Council with veto rights, made a legally-binding commitment to end the nuclear arms race and eliminate their nuclear arsenals; the only place where they have done so. In exchange, states without nuclear weapons agreed to forego them, with the sweetener of assistance in peaceful uses of nuclear technology.

While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and its safeguards and inspections regime serve the non-proliferation parts of the NPT, there are no comparable organisation, timeframes, defined processes, verification or enforcement mechanisms to drive the disarmament side.

The five-yearly NPT RevCon cycles have been fraught. Consensus process means an outcome can be blocked by one state, and condemns agreements to rock-bottom lowest common denominator. In 2015 Canada, the UK and US blocked adoption of a painstakingly negotiated text at the behest of Israel, nuclear-armed and not party to the NPT, and at the 2022 conference (delayed due to Covid) Russia blocked adoption of the final text, mainly due to references to the Zaporizhzya nuclear power plant in Ukraine it attacked and occupied.

Of the three Preparatory Committee meetings preceding this year’s RevCon, only the 2024 meeting was able to adopt even a Chair’s summary.

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