The NDIS needs reform, but the government risks using blunt short-term cuts to meet Budget savings targets before the harder work of building fairer assessments and foundational supports is in place.

The federal Budget depends heavily on the government’s NDIS reforms. Of the $63.8 billion in savings and reprioritisations claimed on Budget night, $37.8 billion – about 60 per cent – comes from proposed NDIS reforms.

That means the NDIS is one of the central fiscal bets of the Budget.

And reform is necessary. The NDIS has grown too big, too fast. The scheme is expected to cost almost $54 billion in 2025-26. It now supports more than 770,000 people, far more than the roughly 490,000 envisaged when the Productivity Commission first proposed the scheme back in 2011. The costs of the NDIS have been growing much faster than other major social programs.

The case for reform is clear. The harder question is whether this package will fix the underlying design problems with the scheme or simply cut costs bluntly. The big risk is that the government hits its savings target but misses the point.

Much of the reform package points in the right direction. The government is right to clarify eligibility for entry to the NDIS. Far more people are in the scheme than it was designed for, and once in the scheme, they tend to stay for the long term. Many people who are on the scheme are not in........

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