In early December, 2024, The University of Hong Kong (HKU) hosted a lucid dialogue entitled: “China in 2050 – Two Perspectives”. The presenters were recognised China scholars, Professor Rana Mitter of Harvard University and Professor Daniel Bell from HKU. “What might be a realistic and desirable future for China” was a primary question addressed. Although the focus was fundamentally on China, the discussion implicitly raised the question of where the US may find itself in 2050.

China

As Mitter began the presentation, he explained he was drawing on research for a forthcoming article. He then outlined five key factors that should be considered in thinking through how China’s future development may be shaped.

First, he highlighted the way that a serious study of Chinese history revealed regular, to-and-fro pulsations between more and less liberalism. Controlling adjustments occurred as threats to stability were perceived. While enhanced stability, in turn, created scope for movements towards greater social choice.

Next, he stressed how China’s influence on pivotal concepts shaping global interaction and development was already significant. The growing importance of what he called “authoritarian welfarism”, where the state adopts a primary role in driving massive community betterment, was already established as one proved alternative to Western developmental paradigms.

Third, he spoke about the huge climate change challenges facing the world and the way that China was now doing so much to lead the green energy revolution, thus strengthening its global influence, with each passing year, in this vital sphere. He compared this role to the way that Japanese car-makers revolutionised the concept of what a “good car” was around 50 years ago by producing reliable, frugal, robust, lower cost mass market automobiles.

Fourth, he spoke about the general, global hi-tech revolution and how China’s extensive base-building in education and manufacturing development, inter alia, had given it a measurable head start. He added that forward-looking adaptability should help Chinese enterprises avoid the fate of........

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