Polling points to a rapidly fragmenting electorate, with One Nation attracting unprecedented support and the major parties facing growing voter dissatisfaction. Ignoring the trend is no longer an option.

Commentary from both left and right has sought to dismiss the implications of the Red Bridge/Accent MRP opinion survey published by the AFR 23-24 May under the heading ‘Is this our political future?’ The myopic yet visceral rejection of the threat posed by the resurgence of One Nation over the last six months is foolhardy.

MRP is the short hand label for Multilevel Regression with Post-stratification.

Poll after poll has identified that one in four voters are seriously considering voting for One Nation, and that the LNP has fallen behind One Nation and is coming in third. For Labor, however complacency is not warranted, even if the projected two-party preferred vote has remained solid.

The Red Bridge/Accent survey conducted in the first half of May 2026 finds that if an election was held now, 62 of the 150 House of Representatives seats would change hands. A range of predictions as to the number of seats that would swing between parties is proffered. Median predictions are that Labor would have 76 seats, One Nation 53, and the Coalition 12, and there would be 9 others.

In this scenario the Coalition are at risk of losing 37 seats to One Nation, and Labor 16. It is proposed that at the moment........

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