A fragile US-Iran agreement may end a war that failed to topple Tehran or destroy its nuclear capacity, leaving Iran with greater regional leverage, Israel exposed and Washington facing hard questions about what the conflict achieved.

After weeks of on-again, off-again negotiations, US President Donald Trump finally seems to have secured an agreement from the Iranian regime to end the war that has roiled the region – and global energy markets – since late February.

Just what’s been agreed to, however, will likely remain contested until the deal is expected to be signed on Friday.

Spurred on by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Trump launched the war on 28 February with the goal of toppling the Iranian regime and making Tehran capitulate – much as he had done in Venezuela.

However, he could not achieve this goal in the face of Tehran’s robust defensive response. Under enormous domestic and international pressure, Trump ultimately decided he had to take the diplomatic resolution available to him to end the conflict as quickly as he could.

The “memorandum of understanding” that Washington and Tehran have announced is a confirmation of this reality.

It will leave Iran in a stronger position than before the war, the US with far less leverage in the region, and Israel in the lurch. The deal will also prompt the Arab states in the Persian Gulf to reassess their security alliances with the US and come to terms with Iran as an influential........

© Pearls and Irritations